CFA Charterholders growl on TSLA

At the annual Bulls & Bears Members Dinner, diners offer their crowd forecast for a selection of market rates. This year’s special was the price of the Tesla stock. 

The 2020 Bulls & Bears Dinner took place on 5 and 6 February in Zurich and Geneva, bringing together more than 120 market specialists combined for a sumptuous dinner and awarding of bottles of champagne to the best forecasters of last year who were present again.

Participants offered their forecasts for the end of 2020 values. For the Swiss Market Index (SMI), the median forecast of 119 is for 11’445, less than 2% above the SMI at pixel time. For the S&P 500, they were similarly conservative with a median & mode of 3400, although the average was slightly higher with 3594. 

Whether the dinner presentations about McKinsey’s Wake up, Switzerland report might have anything to do with diner’s bullish view on the EUR vs USD is anybody’s guess: The mode for EUR/USD was 1.15 USD for a EUR, although the average forecast was for 1.1151, some 2% above the current rate. 

On the 10 year US Treasury bond, Geneva based forecasters were distinctly more bullish than their Zurich counterparts: With an average of 1.4956%, they were a full 10 Bp below Zurich’s collective projection of 1.5937%. The combined average of 1.5657% is only slightly below the current yield. 

Finally, Tesla bulls will hope that diners’ bearishness on TSLA will be proven wrong by market developments, unlike last year’s special forecast for WTI, which was spot on. On average, diners expect the stock to be over 20% lower (USD 593) than today. Given its recent volatility, the bulk of forecasts was within a relatively “modest” range (standard deviation of USD 314), so chances to win a bottle of champagne early next year may be higher for the outliers, be it the bull (USD 2000) or the bear (0). 

 

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